By CNBC commentator Jim Cramer believes that the indictment of former U.S. President Donald Trump is the primary factor behind the weakness in stock futures on Tuesday, rather than the recent weak economic data from China.
Cramer pointed out that while China responded to the weak data by cutting interest rates unexpectedly, the market may be more focused on the U.S. presidential race.
Ahead of the release of U.S. retail sales data, the S&P 500 contract (ES00) experienced a decline of 0.6%.
Interestingly, it wasn’t until hours after Trump’s indictment was announced that stock futures started moving lower.
According to Betfair, the betting odds for Trump winning a second term as president worsened from 9-to-4 to 13-to-5. In other words, there is now a 38% chance of a second term compared to the previous estimate of a 44% possibility.
President Joe Biden is currently the favorite to win the 2024 race, as indicated by betting markets. However, there are also low chances assigned to other Republican candidates such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramasmamy. On the Democratic side, Biden’s challenger Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (who isn’t running) have odds of 21-to-1.
Trump was criminally indicted by a grand jury in Georgia’s Fulton County on Monday night in relation to his attempts to overturn the state’s results in the 2020 presidential election.
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