By If you thought delays and disruptions during the summer were bad enough, brace yourself for the possibility of a government shutdown, which could result in even more frustration for travelers.
During a government shutdown, air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) staff are required to work without pay. This creates a major problem if a significant number of workers call in sick, as was the case during the last shutdown.
In light of this situation, the White House has warned that travelers could face significant delays. In a recent release, the White House stated, “Air traffic controllers and TSA officers would have to work without pay, potentially leading to significant delays and longer wait times for travelers at airports across the country, much like what occurred during previous shutdowns.”
It’s worth noting that the last government shutdown lasted a record-breaking 35 days, from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019. Initially, its impact on the travel sector was limited. However, as the shutdown extended into January and workers began missing their second paychecks, the situation quickly deteriorated.
On January 20, 2019, the final Sunday of the shutdown, the TSA’s unscheduled absence rate skyrocketed to 10%, compared to 3.1% on the same day the previous year. Financial constraints were frequently cited as the reason for these absences. As a result, security lines at airports grew longer, and some airports, like Miami International, had to close terminals due to staff shortages.
Toward the end of the shutdown, pandemonium ensued at airports, most notably at LaGuardia in New York. The increasing number of sickouts led to a ground stop being ordered. Moreover, the absence of ten air traffic controllers on January 25 caused additional delays, ultimately exerting pressure on Congress to find a compromise—which it did on that very day.
While Congress still has until October 1 to finalize a government budget and avoid a shutdown, the signs thus far are not encouraging.
In the event of a shutdown, air traffic controllers and TSA staff will eventually receive retroactive pay, but the big unknown is how long they will be willing to work without pay this time.
The Impact of a Potential Government Shutdown on U.S. Air Travel
Despite previous experiences with shutdowns, flight delays during the last one were not significantly higher than usual. According to data from flight tracker FlightAware, 16.3% of flights by U.S. airlines were delayed during the record 35-day shutdown. Comparatively, 14.7% of flights were delayed during the same period the following year. However, between December 23, 2022, and January 25, 2023, there was a notable increase in flight delays, with 26% of flights experiencing delays.
It is worth noting that the previous shutdown began right at the start of the busy holiday travel season. Generally, airports see fewer travelers in early October, but this year has seen passenger numbers surpassing 2019 levels for much of September.
Beyond the obvious inconveniences caused by flight delays and longer screening lines, there are other less conspicuous consequences of a lengthy shutdown. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg expressed concerns about the halting of crucial training for air traffic controllers due to a shortage. He emphasized that even a shutdown lasting a few weeks could set back training progress by months or more due to its complexity.
The U.S. Travel Association has estimated that a potential shutdown would cost the U.S. travel economy $140 million per day, surpassing the estimated $100 million daily impact seen during the 2018/2019 shutdown. The ramifications would affect various aspects of travel, including flight delays, longer visa interview wait times, and passport processing delays. These setbacks would further limit travel growth and spending.
It is crucial to address these potential issues and prevent them from negatively impacting the U.S. air travel system’s efficiency and modernization plans.
Comments