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Carlsberg AS Q3 Update

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Carlsberg AS, based in Copenhagen, is set to release its third-quarter update on Tuesday. Analysts are closely watching the following key details:

Revenue Forecast

According to a consensus compiled by the company, Carlsberg is expected to announce a 0.9% increase in third-quarter sales, amounting to 20.43 billion Danish kroner ($2.89 billion). The company does not provide further financial information in its quarterly trading statements. Barclays analysts anticipate the quarter to be pricing driven, with some volume pressure.

Volumes

Mikkel Emil Jensen, a senior analyst at Sydbank, notes that challenging weather conditions in Europe and consumers downtrading due to price increases and high inflation could impact volumes. Jensen emphasizes that it may be difficult to assess the effect of declining consumption appetites due to the influence of bad weather. However, Jensen expects stronger momentum in Europe towards the end of the quarter. Despite macroeconomic headwinds, he remains optimistic about favorable momentum in China. Sydbank’s models predict a 3% decline in European volumes. In comparison, Carlsberg’s company-compiled consensus expects group volumes for the quarter to be 35.7 million hectoliters, slightly lower than the 36.0 million hectoliters recorded in the same quarter last year.

Guidance for Carlsberg’s Full-Year 2023 Profit Growth

Carlsberg has provided guidance for its full-year 2023 organic operating profit growth, expecting it to range from 4% to 7%. Sydbank, a Danish financial institution, believes that Carlsberg will meet this forecast. However, Carlsberg also anticipates a negative currency impact on operating profit amounting to approximately DKK900 million for 2023. In addition, the company expects financial expenses, excluding foreign-exchange losses or gains, to be around DKK700 million.

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New CEO Takes Charge

Jacob Aarup-Andersen assumed the role of CEO on September 1st after the retirement of Cees ‘t Hart. Barclays expects that there will not be any significant changes in Carlsberg’s strategy under the new leadership. Nevertheless, they will pay close attention for any shifts or emphasis in the company’s approach going forward.

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